Investor predictions for Super Mario Run seem rash when the Android version has yet to launch
It's harder to compare apples and oranges when no one has seen an orange. Predictions made days after launch prior to the Android release.
While I can see some interesting info in the statistics released around Super Mario Run's fiscal performance, I don't understand why investors want to react so quickly when the Android version has not launched. All the data they have is for iOS players. It seems to me that this makes the numbers even more impressive, despite the ratio of players to payers.
Chill out! The app was just released and Android data is unaccounted for.
After 90 million downloads, it seems investors hoped more conversions would occur even though the 3% rate is higher than many other popular mobile games. At $10 I think the game is doing wonderfully. I think $5 would have been a better price point in a marketplace dominated by Free-To-Play games. I wonder if they are simply assuming the Android community will purchase at the same ratio.
I'm also curious to know how they are making so many predictions based on other games release data without stipulating if these comparisons are also iOS-only releases - or for both platforms.
The second thing I learned when studying economics and statistics is: you can make any assumption you want regardless what the numbers show. Numbers alone don't correlate directly to reasoning, thus can be used to "validate" any BS you want to embellish.
The first thing my Stats Professor told us was the cornerstone to economics is TANSTAAFL.